Swing Voter Sentiment - Trump
Trump Sentiment Improves, but the ‘Tony Soprano Problem’ Persists
May 28, 2025
Donald Trump’s relationship with swing voters continues to resemble the arc of the complex TV antihero Tony Soprano. Like Soprano he draws people in with moments of charisma, authenticity and unpredictability—only to lose them again with flashes of behavior they find troubling. The latest swing voter sentiment data reflects exactly this dynamic: signs of renewed warmth quickly tempered by discomfort and doubt.
Overall sentiment toward Trump has improved. The net score now sits at –8 (8% positive vs. 16% negative), a 6-point gain from the previous period and a notable rebound from the tariff-driven lows of April. But what’s changed isn’t just the numbers, it’s the emotional texture of the conversation.
What’s missing this time is a dominant controversy. With tariffs receding from view and no major new crisis grabbing headlines, swing voter sentiment has shifted back to a familiar rhythm: reacting to Trump’s presence in the political space more than to any single event. This 'vacuum', paradoxically, benefits him. When the temperature drops and Trump doesn’t dominate the news for the wrong reasons, swing voters often remember the things they like about him. They appreciate his unorthodox style. They admire his ability to defy the establishment. And they find reassurance in the image of a political figure who seems to act with purpose, even if they don’t always agree with the execution.
Positive sentiment is still modest, but its foundations are broad. A quarter of supportive posts come from voters defending Trump generally—praising his toughness on immigration, his clarity on tariffs, and his refusal to play by conventional rules. Another 19% reflect a backlash against the Biden administration, especially around the handling of the President’s health, which many voters on both sides see as an unforgivable cover-up. Other pockets of support cite the Trump agenda overall, immigration policy, and even foreign policy—though in far smaller numbers.
But negativity remains persistent and deep. 31% of critical posts are broadly anti-Trump, often emotional in tone and rooted in long-standing mistrust. Others target the GOP (13%), Trump’s handling of foreign policy (11%) and perceived corruption (7%), including the latest controversy over crypto-linked business dealings. There is also discontent around rising prices (6%), cuts to social programs and concerns that Trump is a threat to democratic norms. And while Trump’s sweeping tax cut bill has sparked little immediate backlash or praise, some voters have begun questioning the scale of borrowing required and the impact on Medicare and SNAP.
There’s also a growing sense among some swing voters that Congress has failed to act as a check on Trump’s impulses—a theme that appears in 8% of critical posts. Others voice frustration that while Trump appears to be succeeding in some policy areas, the cost—whether ethical, institutional or economic—may prove too high.
And so we return to the Tony Soprano problem: when Trump reins in his more volatile instincts, voters begin to like him again. They remember the version of Trump they hoped they were getting. But the moment he overreaches—through ego, aggression or disregard for norms—that goodwill quickly fades. Some swing voters are left not just disillusioned with him, but embarrassed at having trusted him in the first place.
The result is a fragile balancing act. Trump has the capacity to win over swing voters. But the data suggests that trust—earned slowly and lost quickly—remains his greatest vulnerability.