Swing Voter Sentiment - Trump
Epstein, Free Speech and Inflation: Why Swing Voters are Turning on Trump
October , 2025
Trump’s problems with swing voters are no longer limited to the economy or foreign policy — they now span a growing list of controversies many of which are self-inflicted. The result is a continued erosion in his standing among a crucial electoral group. Net sentiment among 40,000 swing voters has dropped to–17 in the second half of September down two points in a fortnight and four points over the past month. And the tone of conversation is not just critical —it’s angry, frustrated and increasingly difficult to turn around.
Based on an analysis of 115,000 posts from swing voters between September 11 and 25 it’s clear that Trump is facing a widening trust deficit. Just 8% of posts expressed positive sentiment while 25% were negative — the highest level recorded since the summer. While a chunk of this is general Trump-bashing several themes stand out for their volume, intensity and potential to do long-term damage.
Anger over high prices — especially food and gas — remains a key driver. But what’s changed is the depth of betrayal felt by voters across the board who supported Trump and now feel economically abandoned. Farmers, factory workers and small business owners describe the effects of tariffs as devastating. “Trump’s too busy with civil war” said one dairy farmer “The whole thing is screwed up.”Swing voters repeatedly mocked Trump’s recent claim that “inflation is solved.”
A clear and rising concern among swing voters is Trump’s perceived assault on American democratic norms. From calling for TV licenses to be revoked to purging DOJ investigators, to threatening political opponents — many see Trump’s rhetoric and actions as increasingly authoritarian. This sentiment intensified after the Charlie Kirk shooting with independents accusing Trump of using the tragedy to justify attacks on free speech. Importantly, these concerns rivalled cost-of-living issues in scale over the period.
Despite being an old scandal the Epstein issue continues to cut through. A new round of outrage followed the circulation of a lewd birthday card allegedly sent by Trump to Epstein. The broader complaint is about transparency: swing voters believe Trump is hiding something by refusing to release the full files. “This isn’t going away” one post said flatly — and that sums up the mood. The issue is radioactive and Trump hasn’t neutralized it.
Trump is also under fire for the general direction of the country, his foreign policy approach and for turning his back on key groups like farmers. Even voters who once supported him are now questioning his priorities. As one put it “He just doesn’t care anymore — it’s all about power now.” On the other side of the ledger only a small group of swing voters are actively defending Trump. Most of this praise is rooted in anti-Democrat sentiment rather than policy — attacks on Kamala Harris, George Soros or Biden-era governance. Some also support Trump’s law-and-order stance particularly around his decision to send the National Guard into cities. And a smaller but vocal group view the late CharlieKirk as a martyr whose death has energized the MAGA base.
While Trump remains the most talked-about figure among independents, he’s increasingly spoken of with bitterness, fear and rising anger. These voters are alert, emotional and increasingly provoked by what they see as a pattern of chaos and personal grievance over public good. Whether it’s tariffs, authoritarian threat or the lingering cloud of Epstein, these voters are not tuning out — they’re tuning in and turning away. The more they hear, the more unsettled they become. And right now, nothing in the data suggests they’re coming back.