Predicting the Outcome of the Virginia Governor's Race

Predicting the Outcome of the Virginia Governor's Race


November 3rd at 12:00am



At the beginning of October Terry McAuliffe seemed to be cantering to victory. The race was tight, but he seemed in control and with Trump later reinforcing the thrust of McAuliffe’s campaign – that Youngkin was one of the former president’s men – the Democrats appeared to have all they needed.


Yet, as our insight series reflected, this seemed to spur on Youngkin who doubled down his attacks on the need for parental control over education and with it the associated links to wokeism within the education system. In relation to the bigger policy issues like abortion and the economy this may seem like small beer. But it served to excite and energize his base who happily went online to express their allegiance to the Youngkin cause and encourage others to do the same.

Overall, judging by the net sentiment and the number of posts recorded in the final few days there is no doubt that Youngkin has finished on top in the head to head.


However, given that mail voting began on September 17 – well before this race got hot – when McAuliffe was seemingly in control it could be assumed that – despite Biden’s lessening appeal - McAuliffe could and should have been ahead with 2 weeks left to go. Whether Youngkin has done enough to enthuse more of his people to come out and overcome this initial deficit and also cancel out the walk up Democratic vote in a blue/purple state only time will tell. As shown, he has certainly given it a good shot.


One thing we do know, the parameters the 2022 midterms are set- Trumpism v Wokeism. Regardless of the eventual outcome this race is a wake up call for the Democratic Party



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