Trump Biden Tracker - Swing Voters 

SOTU Sparks Surge In Support Among Independents

April 01, 2024

Over the last four months an interesting pattern of volatility has emerged among our 40K strong swing voter panel. Previously, sharp gains or losses in support for either Biden or Trump have been infrequent with this demographic offering slower and more thoughtful reactions to events which creates readily identifiable flows in momentum or support for each candidate. This pattern continued until December of last year after which we can see swing voters becoming increasingly reactionary to events.

In December, for example, we witnessed Donald Trump’s net sentiment jump by (11pts) as independents reacted unfavorably to attempts in CO and ME to force Trump off the ballot. This stemmed largely from the left who accused the Democratic Party of aping the GOP in trying to undermine democracy. January saw Donald

Trump's fortunes fall by 8pts in response to the failure of Republicans under his command to sign the bi-partisan border deal. In February the pendulum swung against Biden as he dropped 13pts due to issues related to the Middle East along with the publication of the Hur report which raised doubts as to his mental acuity and suitability for office.

To reiterate, the last few years have thrown up similarly damning events which have rarely provoked such a reaction among our panel. Developments which the media have howled about long into the night have often gone unnoticed. Polices predicted to catch the imagination have been largely ignored. Yet recently we have witnessed more alert and responsive reactions among independents. This pattern continued into March as Biden enjoyed a bounce of +11pts on the back of his State of the Union Address (SOTU). It prompted many swing voters to speak excitedly of how he is taking the fight to MAGA. They describe him as 'feisty and pugnacious' which provided the anti Trump caucus with some much needed leadership.

What is different about this particular change in sentiment is that it is self-made. The previous shifts outlined above have occurred as a reaction to events or self harm prompting swing voters to turn on each candidate respectively. Yet here we see Biden going on the front foot, making his own weather. Finally, he has momentum and for once it is self-propelled.

We can therefore surmise that the independent vote is up for the taking and Biden holds the advantage. These people are alert and responsive. Their previous instinct to side with Biden over Trump remains, but the president needs to give them a reason to vote for him. Swing voters need to be able to sit at their desk, their kitchen table or in their favorite bar and say ‘I am voting for Joe Biden because.........’ and only part of that explanation can include ‘he is not Donald Trump’. Biden has to give them more. The SOTU leant into that. It begins to provide independents with the confidence they need in explaining their vote to friends and to themselves.