Swing Voter Sentiment - Trump
Swing Voters Are Angry at Trump. Will They Make Him Pay?
September 07, 2026
In September, Donald Trump told Americans to “pretend that I’m on the ballot” in November. At the time, our swing voter tracker showed his net sentiment at -32, prompting us to suggest he should be careful what he wished for. Two weeks later, with less than four weeks until the midterms, that warning looks increasingly relevant. Trump’s sentiment has deteriorated further, but more importantly, the conversation is becoming explicitly electoral. Swing voters are no longer simply criticizing the President. They are increasingly discussing his record, the Republican Party and how they intend to vote.
Trump’s net sentiment has fallen to -34, the third consecutive decline. Negative conversation now stands at 42%, compared with just 8% positive. The two-point movement may seem relatively modest, but the composition of the conversation tells a much more interesting story.
General anti-Trump sentiment remains the largest negative category at 25%, but criticism of the Republican Party and MAGA has risen from 11% to 14%. Negative discussion of Trump’s record in office has increased from 7% to 12%, while explicit discussion of voting against Trump now accounts for 10% of negative conversation.
These are significant developments. For much of this year, our tracker has measured reactions to Trump’s latest controversies. Epstein, Iran, corruption and concerns about presidential behavior have repeatedly dominated the conversation. Now we are seeing more people connecting those opinions to the approaching election. The distinction matters because Trump himself is not standing for election in November. Republican candidates are. And those candidates appear increasingly conscious of the problem.
Recent reporting suggests that a substantial number of Republicans in competitive races are putting distance between themselves and Trump on issues ranging from Iran to economic policy. Some are emphasizing their independence, while others are less prominently displaying their association with the president.
This creates a fascinating contradiction. Trump wants November to become a referendum on his presidency. Yet some Republican candidates appear increasingly reluctant to allow their campaigns to be defined entirely by him. Our tracker helps explain why.
The economy remains an important part of the story, although its share of negative conversation has fallen from 13% to 7%. Iran has similarly declined from 7% to 5%. However, these figures do not necessarily mean the issues themselves have become less important. Criticism of Trump's overall record in office has increased from 7% to 12%, and importantly, this category frequently brings several grievances together. Rather than criticizing Trump solely over the economy, Iran, Epstein or broken campaign promises, some voters are combining these issues into a broader judgment of his presidency. This suggests that dissatisfaction is becoming more cumulative, with individual controversies increasingly contributing to an overall perception that Trump has failed to deliver.
Corruption also remains prominent at 10%, while Epstein accounts for another 6%. The issues change in relative importance, but the underlying criticism remains remarkably persistent. Trump is no longer dependent on a single controversy to generate negative sentiment.
The positive conversation offers an interesting counterpoint. Positive sentiment has actually doubled from 4% to 8%, suggesting that Trump's supporters are far from silent. However, the nature of that support remains revealing. Defending Trump accounts for 28% of positive conversation, followed by attacking Democrats at 25%. Straightforward pro-Trump sentiment represents just 17%.
In other words, much of the positive conversation is still reactive. Supporters are defending Trump against criticism or attacking his opponents rather than expressing enthusiasm for his achievements. That distinction may become increasingly important as Election Day approaches.
There is also a further concern for Republicans: turnout. Among those expressing negative opinions of Trump are people who previously voted for him but now feel disappointed, even betrayed, by his presidency. These voters do not necessarily have to switch their allegiance to the Democrats to damage Republican prospects. They may simply decide not to vote at all.
Recent national polling provides further context, suggesting that enthusiasm for voting is stronger among those who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 than among Trump voters. Our tracker is not an approval poll or a measure of voting intention, but the findings are consistent with an increasingly difficult political environment for Republicans.
What makes this wave particularly interesting is the progression across the last three readings. Trump’s net sentiment has moved from -30 to -32 and now -34. But more importantly, the conversation is evolving from criticism of the President toward criticism of his party and explicit discussion of voting against him. That is precisely the connection Republican candidates in competitive races may be trying to avoid.
Trump has spent his political career making elections about himself. This year, he has explicitly asked Americans to do the same. But with negative sentiment outweighing positive by more than five to one, that strategy carries considerable risks for Republican candidates.
For Democrats and anti-Trump voters, his presence may provide a powerful incentive to turn out. But for right-leaning swing voters who supported Trump in 2024 and now feel disappointed or betrayed, the effect could be precisely the opposite. They do not have to vote Democrat to punish him. They can simply stay at home.
Trump wants Americans to vote as though he is on the ballot. The danger for Republicans is that some of their own voters may do exactly that — by not voting at all.